So as I have actually had time to reflect and catch up on some rest here are my final thoughts of our tour this year.
1. Indiana has little chance to be average. Warren and Benton Counties are typically two of the best counties in the State. We traveled both and found, replanted fields, low plant stands (in fields that were left), and overall water damage. The area had a TOUGH spring that will certainly continue into summer and make fall a mess.
2. Illinois and Iowa both have areas that need rain BEFORE pollination. We drove 1670 miles and found several counties that need a drink before we get to pollination. Typical of every year but prevalent this year are large areas of dry soils. A big part of Central Illinois and NW Iowa need a drink soon.
3. 75% of Iowa has more than adequate moisture. We found the NE quadrant with enough moisture to make it all the way through pollination. Northern Illinois certainly has enough moisture as well.
4. Minnesota has the best corn crop we have seen in the 5 years we have visited. BIG plant stands (both were slightly over 40,000 ppa) and plenty of moisture. I tweeted out pictures of the mud on my shoes after being in those fields.
5. Iowa farms all look like they were planted in the same week. Never have we seen so little variability. V7-V10 caught every field (the the average being V10). What this means is watch the heat in Iowa July 10-24. I believe 85% of Iowa will pollinate in that time frame.
6. Iowa farmers have embraced high plant stands. We found that 36,000 was a low plant stand in Iowa. Seed dealers must have cut some deals or somehow convinced everyone in the state to plant thicker.
7. Illinois will be average. Southern IL is behind and doesn't typically change the overall state yield unless they are great. Central Illinois is good but spotty. East Central IL had one of the biggest replant years ever for corn. Northern Illinois looks typical (though a little behind normal crop progress).
8. Overall there are certainly enough acres to justify the USDA June 30 report. I would call the crop 10 days behind normal overall. Mid-July weather will be critical for heat especially. If we remain cool, I expect this crop to be average overall. All bets are off if it gets hot.
9. One comment on soybeans. They are small; I get it. Even the early planted soybeans look smaller than we would expect for this time of year. However soybeans have an incredible ability to make up for lack of height or maturity. I would suggest that with an additional 6 million acres we have little chance to hit the trend line yield; it doesn't matter. There are so many acres that total production is a BIG number that could be problematic on the World supply demand sheets.
10. Thanks to everyone who followed along and tweeted/messaged at us. It is a grind to see that many fields in so many miles. WE appreciate all of the encouragement and hope that you all found something interesting in our reports.
Jim Goss
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Showing posts with label Spartan Insurance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spartan Insurance. Show all posts
Monday, July 3, 2017
Friday, June 30, 2017
Thursday, June 29, 2017
Wednesday, June 28, 2017
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
Day 1
We left Champaign County about 2:00 and headed to our only two stops for the day. Before we left we noted that the 2 inches of rain that fell along I-74 late Monday left behind several twisted corn fields from the high winds that came with the rains. The rain was not widespread at all. 10 miles north or south of Champaign received very little to no rain.
Overall in 400 miles from Champaign to La Crosse WI, we saw good looking crops. It was 83 degrees and sunny but the plants did not show any visual signs of stress.
Stop 1 was just south of Wenona, IL. This is in northeastern Marshall County. The corn was very good. 35,000 ppa at V9-V10. Soils were dry in the top two inches but there was some moisture at the 3 inch level. This field has very high yield potential at this time.
Stop 2 was about 90 miles straight north on US 39 about 20 miles south of Rockford Il in Ogle county. This was a corn on corn field that was not as far along as the first field. I would estimate that it was planted in mid May. 34,000 ppa at V7-V8. High yield potential at this time but this field was noticeably drier. Might have been due to the corn on corn but it was drier. No cracks in the soils, but looking like it could use a rain.
Monday, June 20, 2016
24 hours before we leave from Urbana and head north. In preparation for the tour, I looked at 19 of the scheduled stops through the use of Agrible's Morning Farm Report. Mainly I am trying to track the rainfall year to date and since early April, growing degrees days YTD and since early April and how it relates to the yearly averages.
Currently there are 7 fields still behind their normal average rainfall. The stops in LaSalle and Stark County are both behind more than 4 inches from the 10 year average. 6 of the stops are more than 5 inches above the normal 10 year average. Sioux County Iowa and Dodge County Nebraska are over 11 inches ahead of normal. 6 stops have more than 11 inches of rain since April 10. So those folks who believe that we are dry or on the verge of drought everywhere, our random sample has shown that is clearly not the case. It will be interesting to get into these fields over the next 5 days.
All of the stops have been warm. On average we are trending about 6.5 days ahead of normal on growing degree days. If we look back to the last couple of years we were 3-5 days behind a normal pace. I personally think the biggest issue this summer is going to be the heat. Up to this point in the season, the rains have simply been scattered and some as the numbers show have missed the rain and some would like to miss a rain. Everyone has experienced the heat!
I attached a picture of the info to show you what I have been monitoring for a couple of weeks.
Currently there are 7 fields still behind their normal average rainfall. The stops in LaSalle and Stark County are both behind more than 4 inches from the 10 year average. 6 of the stops are more than 5 inches above the normal 10 year average. Sioux County Iowa and Dodge County Nebraska are over 11 inches ahead of normal. 6 stops have more than 11 inches of rain since April 10. So those folks who believe that we are dry or on the verge of drought everywhere, our random sample has shown that is clearly not the case. It will be interesting to get into these fields over the next 5 days.
All of the stops have been warm. On average we are trending about 6.5 days ahead of normal on growing degree days. If we look back to the last couple of years we were 3-5 days behind a normal pace. I personally think the biggest issue this summer is going to be the heat. Up to this point in the season, the rains have simply been scattered and some as the numbers show have missed the rain and some would like to miss a rain. Everyone has experienced the heat!
I attached a picture of the info to show you what I have been monitoring for a couple of weeks.
Monday, June 13, 2016
Get ready, Get set for the 2016 Western Cornbelt Crop Tour
Welcome to crop tour central for 2016. We leave in 8 days on what we think is going to be a critical crop development/crop market period.
With the help of new technology (thank you Agrible) I have been monitoring the weather at our sites. In the 19 sites we are to visit, 9 are below average annual rainfall, 2 are currently at average and 8 are above annual rainfall. 5 sites in the Northwest part of our tour are already more than 5 inches of rain ahead of normal (10 year average) and the majority of their rainfall has been received since April 10th. Conversely Stark and LaSalle Counties in Illinois are more than 4.5 inches short of normal at this point. They represent the areas shortest on moisture.
Temperatures to date have been warm in comparison to any normal measurements. As measured by growing degree days (GDD), all sites are over their 10 year normal and 30 year normal. Dodge Nebraska is the highest above normal at 179 degrees above their 10 year average. Ogle County Illinois is closest to the 10 year norm at only 86 degrees above normal. This time of year we average between 130 and 180 GDD's per week. So the highest is only 1 week ahead of normal and the lowest is about 4 days ahead. Certainly this is not a big deal in my opinion.
The markets have been off to the races here the last 30 days. Seems that every farmer I talk with wants to compare this season to 2012. Clearly this is not 2012 at this point. I have attached two different drought monitoring tables below. As you will notice by the week we toured in 2012, a majority of the area we tour was in a moderate to severe drought. Looking back at our posts, we thought it was dry, but if we would receive normal rains, the crops looked spectacular. If you look at the 2016 chart it is clearly not extremely dry in any of the area we will travel.
2012 Drought Monitor on 6/26/2012
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20120626/20120626_conus_trd.jpg
2016 Drought Monitor as of 6/7/2016
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20160607/20160607_conus_trd.jpg
What are we looking for in 2016? Obviously we are going to monitor the stage of the crop, the condition and estimate OUR perception of yield potential. One other major emphasis will be to estimate corn versus soybean acreage. Again technology has helped us plot the exact fields that we will visit (thank you ACREVALUE.com). If by chance we visit the field and it is growing soybeans instead of corn, we will investigate further but assume that there was a switch in crop from corn.
Here is our tour map. Let us know what questions you have and we will try to answer them as we go.
Blog with you again next week!
With the help of new technology (thank you Agrible) I have been monitoring the weather at our sites. In the 19 sites we are to visit, 9 are below average annual rainfall, 2 are currently at average and 8 are above annual rainfall. 5 sites in the Northwest part of our tour are already more than 5 inches of rain ahead of normal (10 year average) and the majority of their rainfall has been received since April 10th. Conversely Stark and LaSalle Counties in Illinois are more than 4.5 inches short of normal at this point. They represent the areas shortest on moisture.
Temperatures to date have been warm in comparison to any normal measurements. As measured by growing degree days (GDD), all sites are over their 10 year normal and 30 year normal. Dodge Nebraska is the highest above normal at 179 degrees above their 10 year average. Ogle County Illinois is closest to the 10 year norm at only 86 degrees above normal. This time of year we average between 130 and 180 GDD's per week. So the highest is only 1 week ahead of normal and the lowest is about 4 days ahead. Certainly this is not a big deal in my opinion.
The markets have been off to the races here the last 30 days. Seems that every farmer I talk with wants to compare this season to 2012. Clearly this is not 2012 at this point. I have attached two different drought monitoring tables below. As you will notice by the week we toured in 2012, a majority of the area we tour was in a moderate to severe drought. Looking back at our posts, we thought it was dry, but if we would receive normal rains, the crops looked spectacular. If you look at the 2016 chart it is clearly not extremely dry in any of the area we will travel.
2012 Drought Monitor on 6/26/2012
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20120626/20120626_conus_trd.jpg
2016 Drought Monitor as of 6/7/2016
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/jpg/20160607/20160607_conus_trd.jpg
What are we looking for in 2016? Obviously we are going to monitor the stage of the crop, the condition and estimate OUR perception of yield potential. One other major emphasis will be to estimate corn versus soybean acreage. Again technology has helped us plot the exact fields that we will visit (thank you ACREVALUE.com). If by chance we visit the field and it is growing soybeans instead of corn, we will investigate further but assume that there was a switch in crop from corn.
Here is our tour map. Let us know what questions you have and we will try to answer them as we go.
Blog with you again next week!
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